Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension caused by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are waged: hopeful statements are released from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is devoted on managing certain initiatives. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from across the border, a ability afforded by current data. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been dispatched to engage hostile guided weapons streaked across the sky – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by NATO members.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: several firings targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably delivered by allied countries. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly gives way to sober acceptance: possibly the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from ruin and further power outages.
Persistent Threats
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon engaged a aerial vehicle close by, part of a rapid response unit – most likely imported technology. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its target.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: seven people killed, damage and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a dependence that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to fill in the near term.
Failed Diplomacy
The comprehensive proposal from American leadership generated strong feelings, discussion and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from Washington adheres to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, certainly, persist.
Tactical Assessments
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration operates on a assumption well known to international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government presumes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to abandon the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from assuming that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its favour in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding people and territory but preventing a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: personal goals to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not move to domestic problems. And although their objective will now be much harder after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to kill the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new proposals based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
